Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
39 0x3959…c30a weather 339 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+1%) realized +$126 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%295W / 43L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$31
14 days−$13
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +1.1% -8.5% 84% 10% -9.9%
≤30d 337 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 338 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 9% -9.2%
all 338 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 9% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses295 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)338 / 339
History coverage30d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? No 94¢ 92¢ $67 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 −$8 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $134 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$8 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $296 −$226 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $249 +$18 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $214 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $188 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $147 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $186 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 +$15 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $233 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $131 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $139 −$19 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$11 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $20 21m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $29 46m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $40 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $38 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $37 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $72 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $17 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 85¢ $32 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.45 · official $65.45 (match) · 1375 history records