Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x395b…ac27 crypto 870 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate81%703W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$61
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$227
politics 2% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 7% -9.8%
≤30d 203 +1.5% -8.2% 93% 15% -8.2%
≤90d 870 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 20% -10.4%
all 870 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 20% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 20% -10.4%
10% -19.8% 8% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses703 / 167
Open positions0
Markets (closed)870 / 870
History coverage79d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 870 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $40 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $41 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $42 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $41 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $38 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1924 history records