Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x395e…67f3 crypto 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-19%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$14
other 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.1% +1.5% 50% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 23 -27.6% -34.5% 39% 35% -32.0%
≤90d 23 -27.6% -34.5% 39% 35% -32.0%
all 23 -27.6% -34.5% 39% 35% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 35% -32.0%
10% -40.8% 26% -38.5%
15% -46.5% 26% -44.5%
20% -51.7% 17% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records