Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3960…0975 world 106 markets active 6d ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-2%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%23W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$38
14 days−$2
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$472
sports 18% −$385
other 12% +$57
economics 4% −$212
crypto 1% −$32
politics 1% −$47
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.3% -44.2% 20% 20% +13.5%
≤30d 17 +172.6% +146.6% 35% 29% +91.0%
≤90d 52 +49.6% +35.3% 29% 25% -5.1%
all 106 +2.2% -7.6% 22% 20% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 20% -12.8%
10% -16.4% 19% -21.1%
15% -24.5% 18% -28.8%
20% -31.9% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$47 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses23 / 83
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage241d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $37 −$3 -9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $75 +$94 +125%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $13 +$27 +212%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $64 +$66 +102%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 27 $15 −$14 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $67 −$38 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 26 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $44 +$496 +1116%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $7 +$208 +2855%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5) Apr 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $41 −$41 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $48 +$8 +18%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $29 +$8 +28%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $21 +$159 +757%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $33 +$58 +175%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $418 −$119 -28%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $37 +$197 +530%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) Apr 25 $21 +$47 +223%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $67 +$96 +145%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $18 +$32 +178%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Apr 25 $17 −$17 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets Apr 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 5d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 8¢ $15 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 38¢ $12 6d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 43¢ $20 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $169 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 20¢ $37 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $75 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 9d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 17d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 17¢ $20 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $20 21d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 25¢ $32 21d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 25¢ $12 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 21d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $72 21d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $9 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $12 21d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $13 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 22d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 22d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 22d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 631 history records