Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3962…170a other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$65
14 days−$76
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$61
politics 27% −$21
sports 22% −$19
crypto 8% −$9
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$4
world 3% −$10
finance 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 65 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 115 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 140 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 120
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage108d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $76 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $61 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $371 −$47 -13%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $504 −$6 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $62 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $226 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 05 $19 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $51 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $390 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $35 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $35 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $61 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $61 14h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 15h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 20h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 20h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 33h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 89¢ $58 33h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $60 38h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $36 39h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $36 43h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 44h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.66 · official $49.66 (match) · 554 history records