Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3964…14f0 other 46 markets active 9h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$765 (-5%) realized −$769 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$3
14 days−$33
30 days−$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
world 32% −$205
other 15% −$93
sports 9% −$486
weather 7% −$39
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -27.9% -34.8% 55% 10% -9.1%
≤30d 33 -20.0% -27.6% 48% 6% -18.6%
≤90d 37 -16.7% -24.6% 46% 8% -14.7%
all 37 -16.7% -24.6% 46% 8% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 8% -14.7%
10% -31.8% 5% -22.8%
15% -38.4% 5% -30.3%
20% -44.5% 3% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$48 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$769
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage47d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 95¢ 100¢ $81 $85 +$4 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$20 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $84 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $96 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $42 −$6 -14%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $80 −$7 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $137 −$20 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $84 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $72 −$24 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $45 −$2 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$1 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $1,358 −$500 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,257 −$91 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,776 −$71 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,995 −$85 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 11 $1,726 −$43 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $1 $0 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $4,997 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $16 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 25h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 25h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 31h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $68 4d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $1 5d
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 85¢ $15 5d
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 86¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 98¢ $62 6d
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 84¢ $44 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $52 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $94 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.42 · official $195.42 (match) · 159 history records