trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 20¢ | 24¢ | $4,780 | $5,736 | +$956 (+20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $18,335 | +$35,150 | +192% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $53,215 | −$8,204 | -15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 01 | $17,259 | +$5,122 | +30% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 01 | $9,883 | +$2,895 | +29% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Mar 30 | $482 | +$53 | +11% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Mar 29 | $16,671 | −$2,200 | -13% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Mar 29 | $75 | +$4 | +5% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Mar 29 | $5,798 | +$1,213 | +21% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 28 | $29,702 | +$3,585 | +12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Mar 23 | $57 | +$18 | +32% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 21 | $14,420 | −$9,293 | -64% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Mar 19 | $5,284 | +$870 | +16% |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 10 | $7,728 | +$7,304 | +94% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 10 | $16,108 | +$14,992 | +93% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 07 | $3,422 | −$3,140 | -92% |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | Mar 06 | $3,756 | +$1,248 | +33% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Mar 06 | $1,800 | −$1,751 | -97% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $1,356 | −$188 | -14% |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $549 | −$44 | -8% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | Mar 02 | $1,290 | +$429 | +33% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $3,990 | +$6,068 | +152% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Feb 28 | $1,094 | −$104 | -10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +191.7% | +163.9% | 100% | 100% | +163.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +21.2% | +9.7% | 75% | 67% | +5.9% |
| all | 22 | +20.0% | +8.6% | 64% | 59% | +13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +8.6% | 59% | +13.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -1.8% | 41% | +2.6% |
| 15% | -11.3% | 18% | -7.3% |
| 20% | -20.0% | 18% | -16.4% |