Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x396c…4498
crypto · 120 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$638 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$496 · open −$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,345
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses83 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)106 / 120
History coverage32d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day103.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 6 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3,160 $3,170 +$9 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,989 $1,953 −$36 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,512 $1,505 −$7 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $936 $915 −$21 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $815 $803 −$13 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $110 −$10 -9%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7,196 +$157 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,770 −$37 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $759 +$19 +2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,297 +$24 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,215 +$12 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7,986 +$90 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $720 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,220 −$68 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $12,436 −$103 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $260 −$6 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $131 +$9 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $189 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 26 $3,101 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 26 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 26 $24 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% −$33
crypto 7% −$130
world 1% −$52
sports 0% −$43
politics 0% −$22
economics 0% +$708
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $522 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $575 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $744 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $422 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $414 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $660 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $608 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $85 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $279 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $312 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $449 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 105 -8.6% -17.3% 78% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 106 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 2% -9.9%
all 106 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 2% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -18.5% 2% -26.4%
20% -26.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,345.03 · official $8,399.43 (match) · 3500 history records