Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x396c…eb8d sports 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$4
politics 28% −$4
other 28% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 169 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 162
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage660d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $26 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 4PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 4PM ET Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 11AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 11AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3AM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 11PM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11PM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 10, 6PM ET Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 10 $25 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 8AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $25 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 11PM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $24 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 6AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 12AM ET Jan 09 $0 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 7AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 12AM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4PM ET Jan 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $50 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $50 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $26 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $22 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 94¢ $21 12d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $28 24d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $28 24d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 32d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 32d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $15 40d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $15 40d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $2 163d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $9 163d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $11 164d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $11 164d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $11 164d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 165d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 165d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 98¢ $25 165d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $25 165d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 165d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 166d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 166d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 166d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 167d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 167d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $25 167d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $25 172d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 172d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $26 172d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $11 172d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $11 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.74 · official $25.74 (match) · 523 history records