Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x396d…426c crypto 550 markets active 14h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate77%421W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$21
14 days+$20
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$443
finance 2% +$42
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +2.4% -7.3% 87% 33% -7.4%
≤30d 374 -5.2% -14.2% 80% 23% -9.2%
≤90d 550 -4.6% -13.7% 77% 28% -11.0%
all 550 -4.6% -13.7% 77% 28% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 28% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 10% -19.5%
15% -29.5% 5% -27.3%
20% -36.4% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses421 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)550 / 550
History coverage50d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 550 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$10 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 68¢ $133 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $127 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3348 history records