Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x396d…f4ee politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+1%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 58L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 59% −$14
politics 22% −$12
other 13% −$3
sports 2% +$149
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +5.2% -4.8% 11% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 59 +8.9% -1.5% 19% 14% -7.8%
all 73 +8.5% -1.9% 21% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 12% -9.1%
10% -11.3% 12% -17.8%
15% -19.8% 12% -25.7%
20% -27.7% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage606d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $13 +$14 +101%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $186 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $378 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +70%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $16 +$11 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 35m
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $138 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $13 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $43 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.10 · official $188.10 (match) · 300 history records