Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

39 0x396f…33ac crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,438 (-61%) realized −$1,438 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate78%14W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$130per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)-6.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+36.8%	+23.8%	100%	86%	+18.5%
≤30d	9	+6.4%	-3.7%	78%	67%	-74.0%
≤90d	18	+3.6%	-6.3%	78%	61%	-67.2%
all	18	+3.6%	-6.3%	78%	61%	-67.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.3%	61%	-67.2%
10%	-15.2%	33%	-70.3%
15%	-23.4%	22%	-73.2%
20%	-30.9%	11%	-75.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$419 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,438

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses14 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage64d

Avg bet$130

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 28	$88	+$14	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 28	$83	+$62	+75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 28	$66	+$19	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 28	$117	+$14	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 28	$41	+$10	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 28	$41	+$3	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 28	$21	+$20	+94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 13	$51	−$51	-100%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Jun 13	$1,570	−$1,570	-100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	May 01	$45	−$45	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	May 01	$45	+$6	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	May 01	$32	+$14	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	May 01	$29	+$4	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	May 01	$23	+$5	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	May 01	$22	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	May 01	$20	+$2	+8%
Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)	May 01	$31	−$10	-32%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5	May 01	$22	+$8	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$145	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records