Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3972…0a77 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$210 (-9%) realized −$247 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$309
other 41% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.3% +0.7% 46% 46% +3.4%
≤30d 41 -31.9% -38.4% 24% 24% -29.8%
≤90d 41 -31.9% -38.4% 24% 24% -29.8%
all 50 -28.0% -34.9% 32% 30% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 30% -29.2%
10% -41.1% 24% -36.0%
15% -46.8% 22% -42.2%
20% -52.0% 18% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage91d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $410 $445 +$35 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+4%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $39 +$11 +27%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $17 +$82 +473%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$33 +125%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$16 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$106 +105%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $67 −$66 -99%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $13 −$13 -98%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $14 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $58 −$57 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $54 −$53 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 29 $92 −$90 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $71 −$24 -34%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $49 −$48 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $46 −$45 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $29 −$28 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $57 −$56 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $67 −$66 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $82 +$217 +264%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $60 −$59 -98%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lautaro Midon May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $47 −$46 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $55 +$145 +262%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $85 −$84 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 27 $25 −$24 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $44 +$56 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $38 +$112 +291%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $43 −$42 -97%
Kosice: Lilian Marmousez vs Taro Daniel May 27 $22 −$22 -98%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Mar 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 +$1 +15%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Arthur Rinderknech Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Zizou Bergs vs Tomas Etcheverry Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 78¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $59 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $16 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $76 35h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $4 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 14¢ $25 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $34 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $27 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $101 6d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca BUY Fonseca 14¢ $2 18d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca BUY Fonseca 14¢ $6 18d
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano BUY Clement Chidekh 13¢ $13 18d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $1 18d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $0 18d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $0 18d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $1 18d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.00 · official $519.01 (match) · 128 history records