Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3973…7c9b
other · 9 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$172 -63%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$167 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 −$29 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$176
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $58 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 14% 14% -68.3%
≤30d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 14% 14% -68.3%
≤90d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 14% 14% -68.3%
all 7 -48.3% -53.2% 14% 14% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 14% -68.3%
10% -57.7% 14% -71.4%
15% -61.8% 14% -74.1%
20% -65.5% 14% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 11 history records