Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3974…1a63 crypto 1285 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%1160W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$140
14 days+$213
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$191
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 559 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1156 -0.0% -9.6% 91% 0% -9.7%
all 1285 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1160 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1285 / 1285
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1285 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $287 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $285 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $282 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $279 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $277 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $272 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $269 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $261 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $259 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $256 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $253 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $245 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $242 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $236 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $234 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $232 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $229 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $227 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $225 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $223 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $221 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $219 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $217 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $215 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $211 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $209 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $289 −$83 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $287 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $284 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $281 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $279 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $276 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $269 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $266 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $261 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $259 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $256 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $287 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $285 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $282 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $279 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $277 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $274 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $272 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $269 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $267 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $264 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $261 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $259 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $256 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $129 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $253 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $250 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $248 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $125 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $245 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $242 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $240 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $236 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $234 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $232 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $229 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $227 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $225 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $223 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $221 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $219 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records