Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3979…c2bb world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$5
other 18% $0
sports 3% +$3
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 19 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 19 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 0% -10.1%
all 35 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage465d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $24 −$4 -16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $24 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $42 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $25 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $22 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records