Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x397b…0007
crypto · 10 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$4 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$4
other 13% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -36.5% -42.5% 57% 29% -39.2%
≤90d 7 -36.5% -42.5% 57% 29% -39.2%
all 7 -36.5% -42.5% 57% 29% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 29% -39.2%
10% -48.0% 14% -45.0%
15% -53.0% 0% -50.3%
20% -57.6% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 15 history records