Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x397c…ca1b weather 1204 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$298 · open −$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%325W / 666L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$329
14 days+$642
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$70
sports 8% −$27
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 435 +14.1% +3.3% 26% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 948 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 25% -7.1%
≤90d 991 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 25% -7.0%
all 991 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 25% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 25% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 23% -15.9%
15% -27.9% 21% -24.0%
20% -35.0% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,183
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$323
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses325 / 666
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions173
Markets (closed)991 / 1204
History coverage34d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 173 History 991 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 30¢ 99¢ $8 $25 +$17 (+231%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 49¢ 90¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 21? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $10 $17 +$6 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Yes 42¢ 59¢ $10 $15 +$4 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 327 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 +$33 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$36 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$58 +353%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$60 +398%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +429%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$46 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$37 +311%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$14 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$17 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 +$19 +337%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$43 +609%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 +$44 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$44 +810%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $17 +$33 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$47 +1625%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$88 +748%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$22 +808%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$43 +583%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 +$34 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$79 +386%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$17 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$27 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $18 −$17 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,182.53 · official $1,185.17 (match) · 3187 history records