Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x397d…3d7c other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$29
sports 23% −$19
culture 7% −$17
politics 7% −$4
economics 7% −$5
world 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage127d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $426 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $155 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $394 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $384 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $266 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $782 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $362 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $440 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $509 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $289 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $328 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $495 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $176 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $312 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 23m
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 8h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 14h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 17h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 19h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 20h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 27h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 29h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 31h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 36h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 38h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 42h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 43h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 45h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.70 · official $47.70 (match) · 1315 history records