Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x397e…17ad
sports · 458 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$263 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open −$197
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,820
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses134 / 104
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions220
Markets (closed)238 / 458
History coverage85d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 220 History 238 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$7
14 days+$24
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $128 $212 +$85 (+66%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 90¢ 82¢ $120 $110 −$10 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 84¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-10%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 47¢ 96¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+101%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 58¢ $45 $31 −$14 (-31%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 73¢ 62¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 56¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 92¢ 79¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 90¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 50¢ 74¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 24¢ 68¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+185%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 80¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Under 82¢ 96¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Atlanta Braves 18¢ 38¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+114%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $91 +$81 +89%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$7 +137%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -85%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Will the announcers say "Canada" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Tim Ream be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +238%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$11 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$2 -11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$23 -46%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 −$9 -59%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -49%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-8.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$203
other 18% −$12
world 10% −$27
crypto 6% +$23
finance 4% +$3
weather 2% −$27
tech 1% −$8
politics 1% −$5
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $5 6m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) SELL New York Mets 99¢ $7 8m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 9m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $5 10m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 71¢ $5 10m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 15m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 30m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $5 31m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 32m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 32m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 39m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) SELL New York Mets 99¢ $6 41m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 8¢ $1 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 8¢ $1 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -4.2% -13.3% 56% 41% -9.7%
≤30d 211 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 43% -10.6%
≤90d 238 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 44% -11.6%
all 238 -4.0% -13.1% 56% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -11.6%
10% -21.5% 34% -20.1%
15% -29.0% 25% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,819.70 · official $1,832.67 (match) · 1104 history records