Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x397f…85f6 sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$893 (+12%) realized +$905 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%64W / 77L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,130
7 days−$1,305
14 days+$101
30 days+$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,069
other 32% +$205
crypto 3% −$46
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -40.8% -46.4% 23% 23% -40.1%
≤30d 127 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -0.5%
≤90d 132 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 42% +1.7%
all 141 +3.8% -6.1% 45% 45% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 45% +6.1%
10% -15.1% 45% -4.1%
15% -23.3% 44% -13.3%
20% -30.8% 41% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$35 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$905
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses64 / 77
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 149
History coverage254d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 +$125 +82%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$60 +291%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$58 +114%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$8 -37%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 27 $8 +$20 +248%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $61 +$39 +63%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 27 $53 +$47 +88%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $10 16m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $30 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $51 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $84 8h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $20 9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $18 9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $20 9h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $30 9h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $135 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? AND Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 I BUY 2¢ $5 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $51 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 16¢ $10 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 34¢ $120 28h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 36h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 36h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 55¢ $51 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 12¢ $21 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in BUY 13¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 52¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.44 · official $42.57 (match) · 348 history records