Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3982…6278 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$222 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%58W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day63.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$120
other 7% +$78
sports 2% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +5.1% -4.9% 57% 55% -9.6%
≤30d 102 +5.1% -4.9% 57% 55% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +5.1% -4.9% 57% 55% -9.6%
all 102 +5.1% -4.9% 57% 55% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 55% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 44% -18.3%
15% -22.3% 41% -26.2%
20% -29.9% 31% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$58 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses58 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage4d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day63.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 6¢ 8¢ $499 $576 +$77 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $132 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $160 +$78 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $327 −$308 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $212 +$37 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $461 −$65 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $298 +$443 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$167 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$21 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$44 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$14 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$14 -67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +199%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$30 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $152 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $36 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $83 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.32 · official $1,103.42 · 360 history records