Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x3985…9f1d other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$236 (+79%) realized +$298 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+75.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +93.4% +75.0% 50% 50% +82.6%
≤30d 2 +93.4% +75.0% 50% 50% +82.6%
≤90d 2 +93.4% +75.0% 50% 50% +82.6%
all 2 +93.4% +75.0% 50% 50% +82.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.0% 50% +82.6%
10% +58.2% 50% +65.2%
15% +42.9% 50% +49.2%
20% +28.9% 50% +34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$106 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage3d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $70 $8 −$62 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $116 +$333 +287%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $109 −$106 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 56¢ $450 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $116 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 17¢ $109 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.79 · official $7.79 (match) · 4 history records