Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3988…7a45 world 113 markets active 4h ago coverage 148d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,961 (-5%) realized −$3,956 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate77%75W / 23L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$506
politics 19% −$269
other 2% +$9
tech 2% −$146
sports 0% −$69
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 31% -13.0%
≤30d 29 -4.7% -13.8% 69% 21% -12.9%
≤90d 97 -2.0% -11.4% 76% 21% -9.4%
all 98 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 20% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 13% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$42 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$39,028
Realized−$3,956
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses75 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)98 / 113
History coverage148d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 72¢ $43,707 $38,965 −$4,742 (-11%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 92¢ 79¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Truist fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 85¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 81¢ 28¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-66%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canva IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -33%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Ramp IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $9,288 −$321 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $2,927 −$34 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,925 −$279 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $18 +$4 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $970 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +30%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $2 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 May 27 $2 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $64 +$5 +8%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $152 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $6 $0 -1%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $38 +$2 +6%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $3 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $8 +$4 +51%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $289 +$27 +9%
Will KeyBank fail by June 30, 2026? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 05 $25 −$8 -31%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 05 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $20 $0 -0%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? May 05 $38 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 05 $96 +$28 +30%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1 $0 +24%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $983 +$8 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $1,055 −$149 -14%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 30 $1,439 +$7 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $3 +$3 +90%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $14 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $571 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $7,913 5h
Canva IPO before 2027? SELL No 55¢ $3 7h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Ramp IPO before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $4,944 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $3,900 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $8 7h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $3 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 73¢ $8,967 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $2,807 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $2,893 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1,143 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,462 10h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $975 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2,646 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,925 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $2,437 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $456 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $3,900 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $3,900 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $3,900 10h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $1,950 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,900 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,900 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $3,900 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $3,900 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,027.86 · official $39,027.41 (match) · 1001 history records