Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3988…7ae9 crypto 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,374 (-6%) realized −$1,374 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%216W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$126
14 days−$90
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$885
crypto 26% +$195
other 13% −$305
politics 12% −$270
world 12% −$47
economics 3% −$104
finance 1% −$12
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% +$59
weather 1% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.5% -23.6% 41% 41% -15.6%
≤30d 107 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 39% -10.7%
≤90d 403 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 32% -14.6%
all 456 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 29% -14.8%
10% -23.5% 24% -23.0%
15% -30.9% 18% -30.4%
20% -37.7% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses216 / 240
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage108d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $429 −$22 -5%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $963 −$73 -8%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $65 −$1 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
HYPE Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$5 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$7 +30%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -97%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$29 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$35 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$25 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$34 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$26 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 06 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $29 +$26 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $29 +$10 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 28 $9 +$3 +33%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 28 $8 +$5 +60%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? May 28 $11 −$6 -60%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? May 28 $8 −$3 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $8 −$2 -27%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 28 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO May 28 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $11 −$1 -9%
Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27? May 28 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 28 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? May 28 $11 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 36¢ $31 1h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $61 1h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $99 1h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 5h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 5h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 5h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 5h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $65 20h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 20h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 23h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 27h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 28h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 28h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 29h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $35 3d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 3d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 3d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1555 history records