Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x3988…a621 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$115 (+2%) realized +$212 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$192
14 days−$104
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$21
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 60% 60% -12.9%
≤90d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 58% 58% +4.5%
all 30 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 57% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 57% -8.3%
10% -12.4% 53% -17.1%
15% -20.9% 43% -25.1%
20% -28.6% 30% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$183 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage188d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm New York Liberty 77¢ 16¢ $123 $26 −$97 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $194 −$192 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $212 +$88 +42%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $312 −$308 -99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 09 $612 +$188 +31%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Jun 03 $628 +$152 +24%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 15 $246 −$241 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 15 $212 +$28 +13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $160 +$58 +36%
Thunder vs. Suns May 03 $117 +$32 +27%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $450 −$441 -98%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 18 $306 +$1,189 +388%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 27 $180 −$180 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 27 $120 +$80 +67%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Mar 14 $663 −$663 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 14 $205 +$295 +144%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 11 $63 +$87 +138%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 07 $82 −$82 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Mar 02 $66 +$38 +59%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 26 $60 +$53 +89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 22 $41 +$29 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 18 $51 +$20 +39%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 18 $56 +$25 +45%
Bucks vs. Wizards Feb 04 $66 +$81 +122%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 23 $16 +$12 +75%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Capitals vs. Panthers Dec 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 77¢ $124 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $194 4d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 70¢ $212 10d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 26¢ $54 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 21¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 20¢ $144 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 20¢ $110 16d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 76¢ $612 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang BUY Sorana Cirstea 80¢ $628 25d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P BUY GIANTX 26¢ $246 41d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $212 51d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $160 54d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 78¢ $117 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $125 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $125 64d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 30¢ $450 68d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Nuggets 20¢ $6 75d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Nuggets 20¢ $300 75d
Red Wings vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 60¢ $180 90d
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers BUY Vanderbilt Commodores 54¢ $30 96d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 60¢ $120 100d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Blackhawks 33¢ $66 103d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Blackhawks 33¢ $264 103d
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights BUY Blackhawks 34¢ $333 103d
Cavaliers vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $205 106d
Canadiens vs. Kings BUY Kings 55¢ $82 110d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY M80 42¢ $63 115d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 63¢ $66 119d
Celtics vs. Lakers BUY Celtics 53¢ $60 123d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $23 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.40 · official $26.40 (match) · 57 history records