Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x398b…17f7 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% $0
world 26% −$4
sports 12% +$14
other 7% −$34
finance 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 25% -7.4%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 4% -10.3%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 10% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -11.0%
10% -20.9% 7% -19.5%
15% -28.5% 7% -27.3%
20% -35.5% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage542d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $88 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $78 −$4 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $258 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $216 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $198 −$4 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $221 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $243 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15? Mar 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the match between Union St.-Gilloise and Ajax Amsterdam end in a Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Pennsylvania vs. Yale Feb 15 $12 +$15 +117%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Feb 13 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Dec 29 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $46 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.97 · official $38.97 (match) · 100 history records