Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
39 0x398c…87dc sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-25%) realized −$10 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$3
other 41% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 50% -42.1%
≤30d 4 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 50% -42.1%
≤90d 4 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 50% -42.1%
all 5 +4.2% -5.7% 60% 60% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 60% -34.8%
10% -14.7% 60% -41.0%
15% -23.0% 60% -46.7%
20% -30.5% 40% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage259d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 18¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Commanders vs. Falcons Sep 29 $3 +$2 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 39h
Commanders vs. Falcons BUY Falcons 58¢ $3 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.74 · official $11.74 (match) · 15 history records