Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x398d…f9af crypto 767 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,314 (+5%) realized +$1,314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%460W / 307L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$541
7 days+$541
14 days+$541
30 days+$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$754
sports 15% +$719
world 0% −$2
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.6% -1.7% 83% 67% -5.4%
≤30d 6 +8.6% -1.7% 83% 67% -5.4%
≤90d 327 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 44% -3.8%
all 767 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 48% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -13.5%
15% -25.2% 26% -21.8%
20% -32.6% 16% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses460 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)767 / 767
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 767 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $1,513 +$309 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $1,470 +$44 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $1,212 +$222 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,797 −$1,549 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1,959 +$804 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $2,921 +$710 +24%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 27 $427 +$641 +150%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 09 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7AM ET Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $40 −$11 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $20 +$37 +186%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $12 +$10 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $20 +$33 +163%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 01 $60 +$60 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $131 +$66 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $20 −$17 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $20 +$15 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $198 +$48 +24%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $20 −$15 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $220 +$9 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $2,991 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET Mar 27 $40 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12AM ET Mar 27 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8PM ET Mar 26 $5,781 +$231 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET Mar 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 25 $4 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 25 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12PM ET Mar 24 $36 −$16 -45%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 23 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 23 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $194 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $118 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $118 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $266 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $354 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $175 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records