Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x398d…b8d6 sports 991 markets active 3d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,620 (-2%) realized −$1,620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%481W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$784est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$110
30 days−$1,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,687
other 8% −$1,011
politics 0% −$47
finance 0% −$40
crypto 0% −$94
culture 0% +$1
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 45% -11.7%
≤30d 236 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 49% -15.2%
≤90d 937 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 48% -13.2%
all 991 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 46% -21.5%
15% -31.8% 41% -29.1%
20% -38.5% 32% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$61 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses481 / 510
Est. fees paid−$784
Open positions0
Markets (closed)991 / 991
History coverage100d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 991 Trades
no open positions (489 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$21 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 +$146 +366%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $189 −$186 -99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $19 +$29 +148%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$46 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $85 −$37 -43%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 +$113 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 +$29 +58%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 −$90 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$50 -45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$31 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $66 +$89 +134%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$53 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $93 +$131 +140%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$78 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$26 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $59 +$47 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $121 +$137 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $65 +$37 +58%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $134 −$92 -69%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 +$65 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $90 +$38 +42%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$19 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$159 +341%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $66 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $185 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $30 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $8 3d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $28 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $101 3d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $23 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 77¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $71 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $11 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $48 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $36 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $235 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $12 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $76 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $122 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2268 history records