Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 14 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,866
7 days+$76,497
14 days+$87,686
30 days−$51,634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $8,429 $10,631 +$2,202 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 57¢ 18¢ $15,854 $5,127 −$10,727 (-68%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ $7,029 $1,757 −$5,272 (-75%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 60¢ 23¢ $2,962 $1,156 −$1,806 (-61%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 44¢ $1,223 $1,088 −$135 (-11%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $392 $233 −$159 (-41%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 93¢ $186 $185 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 44¢ 40¢ $149 $134 −$15 (-10%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $111 $119 +$8 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $100 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 65¢ 97¢ $65 $97 +$32 (+49%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $400 $65 −$335 (-84%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $37 $29 −$8 (-22%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $50 $16 −$35 (-69%)
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Yes 18¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for less than 2 seconds? Yes 11¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? No 19¢ $713 $0 −$713 (-100%)
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Yes $438 $0 −$438 (-100%)
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Blue Jays $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 10¢ $1,410 $0 −$1,410 (-100%)
Phillies vs. Reds Phillies 52¢ $13,260 $0 −$13,260 (-100%)
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Canelo 57¢ $23,630 $0 −$23,630 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? Yes $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? No 22¢ $3,734 $0 −$3,734 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Lynx vs Sky Jun 12 $259 −$259 -100%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jun 12 $4,111 −$4,111 -100%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $102,040 +$37,395 +37%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $3,564 +$17,156 +481%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 10 $36,803 +$26,813 +73%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 02 $1,583 −$1,578 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 02 $1,014 −$989 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $1,233 −$88 -7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $13,707 +$5,120 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $122,013 +$15,876 +13%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1,500 +$500 +33%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 31 $22 +$29 +133%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 31 $470 +$89 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $7,771 −$7,771 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $600 −$168 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $61,325 −$57,895 -94%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $95,720 +$6,053 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $89,018 −$89,017 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 19 $63 +$843 +1329%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 19 $1,147 +$865 +75%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 11 $7,836 −$7,610 -97%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $387 −$125 -32%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $2,473 +$240 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $13,623 −$13,623 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $3,310 −$3,310 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 09 $7,521 −$7,521 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $303 −$300 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $5,744 +$1,620 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 08 $192 −$9 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $43,117 −$40,015 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $6,132 −$3,795 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 06 $1,153 −$1,112 -96%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $25,800 +$4,182 +16%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $8,918 −$9 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $35,102 +$7,624 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 05 $1,782 +$93 +5%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 05 $458 −$438 -96%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 03 $9,780 −$13 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $27,009 +$18,475 +68%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $16,872 −$15,798 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $149,600 +$400 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 01 $1,796 −$7 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 30 $14 +$11 +79%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $34,162 +$1,600 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $26,896 +$13,124 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% +$1,157
politics 32% +$46,882
world 17% −$192,570
economics 7% +$11,735
crypto 4% +$67,967
sports 4% −$19,628
finance 1% +$5,307
tech 0% −$2,626
weather 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 10d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 17¢ $2,353 10d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 11¢ $284 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1,145 10d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 11¢ $0 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $307 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $961 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 10d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 12¢ $728 10d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 16¢ $1,212 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $170 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $791 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $565 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3,844 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% +37.5%
≤30d 24 +45.9% +32.0% 46% 42% -18.2%
≤90d 70 +19.5% +8.1% 34% 24% -17.2%
all 146 +33.4% +20.7% 45% 29% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.7% 29% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here +9.1% 22% -19.3%
15% -1.4% 17% -27.1%
20% -11.1% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,738.18 · official $20,738.58 (match) · 3500 history records