Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3991…2e68 crypto 352 markets active 12h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%199W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.0% -16.8% 52% 52% -24.0%
≤30d 189 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 54% -12.8%
≤90d 352 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 55% -14.0%
all 352 +1.2% -8.5% 57% 55% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 55% -14.0%
10% -17.2% 51% -22.2%
15% -25.2% 42% -29.7%
20% -32.6% 30% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses199 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)352 / 352
History coverage70d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 352 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $1 +$2 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1064 history records