Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3993…cded
sports · 321 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$777,103 -107%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$774,632 · open −$2,470
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104,169
Realized−$774,632
Unrealized−$2,470
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses162 / 541
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$8,014
Open positions8
Markets (closed)703 / 321
History coverage45d
Avg bet$2,265
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 703 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$770,381
7 days−$755,181
14 days−$763,657
30 days−$791,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 58¢ 100¢ $59,015 $101,616 +$42,601 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 32¢ 30¢ $2,596 $2,393 −$203 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D Virtus.pro 51¢ 100¢ $41 $80 +$39 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 73¢ 100¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+37%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 24¢ 29¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+22%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-81%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner GenOne 69¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 27¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+76%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 42¢ 0¢ $2,178 $3 −$2,176 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 30¢ 0¢ $90 $1 −$88 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Team Vitality 75¢ 0¢ $13,420 $0 −$13,420 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) PARIVISION 46¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$286 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Team Spirit 40¢ 0¢ $11,756 $0 −$11,756 (-100%)
Will England win on 2025-09-09? No 48¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage FOKUS 33¢ 0¢ $494 $0 −$494 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $1,696 $0 −$1,696 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Astros vs. Rangers Astros 54¢ 0¢ $441 $0 −$441 (-100%)
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) Al Khaleej Saudi Club 49¢ 0¢ $26,166 $0 −$26,166 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Aurora Gaming 83¢ 0¢ $3,535 $0 −$3,535 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $1,628 $0 −$1,628 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 12 $13,420 −$13,420 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 12 $286 −$286 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $11,756 −$11,756 -100%
Will England win on 2025-09-09? Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 12 $494 −$494 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,696 −$1,696 -100%
Astros vs. Rangers Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 12 $26,166 −$26,166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 12 $3,535 −$3,535 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1,628 −$1,628 -100%
Argentina Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Thiago Seyboth Wil Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Ethan Q Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia Zakha Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will CD La Equidad Seguros vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Jun 12 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-10-02? Jun 12 $1,776 −$1,776 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
China Open: Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-04-27? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $487 −$487 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
DEL: Straubing Tigers vs. Adler Mannheim Jun 12 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Team Liquid win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will India win? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The MongolZ win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 12 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 12 $1,287 −$1,287 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 12 $298 −$298 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5) Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,880 −$6,880 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $457 −$457 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs fnatic (BO3) Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-7.5) Jun 12 $964 −$964 -100%
Huzhou: Yufei Ren vs Yidi Yang Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 12 $654 −$654 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$5,950
other 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 69¢ $4 0m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 27¢ $2 1m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 23¢ $9 12m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 24¢ $15 12m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $2,077 49m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $466 49m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $2 49m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $24 49m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $7 50m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $2 50m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $3 50m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $14 51m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $1,052 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $1,018 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $49 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 73¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 431 -94.8% -95.3% 3% 3% -90.9%
≤30d 548 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 14% -76.3%
≤90d 703 -57.9% -62.0% 23% 21% -61.2%
all 703 -57.9% -62.0% 23% 21% -61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.0% 21% -61.2%
10% -65.6% 19% -64.9%
15% ← realistic here -68.9% 15% -68.3%
20% -72.0% 11% -71.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104,168.62 · official $104,168.62 (match) · 3500 history records