Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3993…fd22 crypto 1161 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$762 (-3%) realized −$762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%603W / 558L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$441
7 days+$398
14 days−$407
30 days−$703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -0.5% -10.0% 64% 50% +0.5%
≤30d 1140 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 49% -12.1%
≤90d 1161 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 48% -12.1%
all 1161 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -20.6%
15% -28.2% 43% -28.2%
20% -35.3% 40% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses603 / 558
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1161 / 1161
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1161 Trades
no open positions (483 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $284 +$208 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$50 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $183 +$272 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$418 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $154 +$30 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$61 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$31 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $163 −$155 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$64 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $82 −$40 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $86 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $133 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $200 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $180 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $75 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $61 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $45 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $115 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $24 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3131 history records