Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3994…ff63 crypto 668 markets active 11h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-1%) realized −$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%247W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$552
14 days−$934
30 days+$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,497
world 20% −$20
other 2% −$201
finance 1% −$293
sports 1% +$70
economics 0% −$12
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -32.4% -38.8% 30% 25% -18.5%
≤30d 488 +0.5% -9.0% 42% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 598 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 36% -11.7%
all 668 -5.2% -14.2% 37% 35% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 35% -12.9%
10% -22.4% 34% -21.2%
15% -29.9% 31% -28.9%
20% -36.8% 28% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$39 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses247 / 421
Open positions0
Markets (closed)668 / 668
History coverage184d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 668 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$26 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$10 +74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $2,622 +$248 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$31 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $111 −$41 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$89 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $63 −$57 -91%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$141 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $39 +$67 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $39 +$27 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $88 −$49 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$28 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $119 −$85 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$20 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $209 −$44 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$26 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$56 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $153 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $114 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$23 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$26 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $123 +$35 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $47 −$44 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $67 +$47 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $49 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $100 −$51 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$42 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $48 +$40 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $43 +$46 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $98 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2017 history records