Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3997…a28b
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$42 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage141d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +38%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 +$96 +785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 +$23 +442%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 24 $107 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 24 $13 +$11 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 12PM ET Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 24 $65 +$30 +45%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 24 $56 +$8 +14%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 24 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 24 $5 +$30 +602%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 24 $4 +$8 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 24 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 24 $48 +$14 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$123
other 17% +$50
sports 12% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 31m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $28 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 44¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 33¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +70.6% +54.3% 46% 46% -8.1%
≤30d 13 +70.6% +54.3% 46% 46% -8.1%
≤90d 13 +70.6% +54.3% 46% 46% -8.1%
all 30 +30.4% +18.0% 40% 40% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 40% -16.9%
10% +6.7% 37% -24.8%
15% -3.6% 33% -32.1%
20% -13.1% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.71 · official $8.71 (match) · 102 history records