Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
39 0x3997…dd0f finance 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,790 (+5%) realized +$3,365 · open −$1,575
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%68W / 40L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$306
14 days+$306
30 days+$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$1,132
politics 34% +$2,784
tech 21% +$343
finance 6% −$149
world 2% −$23
crypto 1% −$137
culture 1% +$46
economics 0% +$5
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.2% +1.5% 100% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 4 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 25% -5.1%
≤90d 10 +22.2% +10.5% 90% 50% +11.6%
all 108 -10.3% -18.9% 63% 42% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% +2.5%
10% -26.6% 25% -7.4%
15% -33.7% 15% -16.3%
20% -40.2% 6% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$49 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$7,708
Realized+$3,365
Unrealized−$1,575
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses68 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage197d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8,599 $7,063 −$1,536 (-18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $539 $530 −$9 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $146 $115 −$30 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2,395 +$88 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $1,051 +$218 +21%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 01 $658 +$42 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5,687 +$131 +2%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 09 $1,060 +$100 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $7,330 +$3,535 +48%
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? Apr 14 $503 +$232 +46%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $222 +$108 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $73 +$27 +37%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $164 −$2 -1%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 23 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $8 −$5 -68%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 16 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $141 +$8 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $181 +$46 +25%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 09 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $100 −$35 -35%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 03 $37 −$23 -62%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Mar 02 $60 +$9 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $67 +$3 +5%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 02 $76 +$13 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 23 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Expedia Group (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Draftkings Inc (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Hyatt Hotels (H) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 +$40 +400%
Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anheuser-Busch (BUD) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will HubSpot (HUBS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $524 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,483 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,269 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $150 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $150 21d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $163 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $390 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $648 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $326 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $245 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $514 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $76 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $320 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $689 23d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,327 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $111 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,708.47 · official $7,708.47 (match) · 604 history records