Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3999…a00f
sports · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,712 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,628 · open −$112
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$502
Realized−$1,628
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,628
7 days−$1,628
14 days−$1,628
30 days−$1,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 48¢ $330 $327 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 61¢ 38¢ $284 $175 −$109 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $355 +$492 +139%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $252 −$201 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $514 −$350 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $145 −$96 -66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $248 −$111 -45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $227 −$227 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $129 −$129 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $197 +$50 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 61¢ $292 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 40¢ $286 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $502 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $340 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $847 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $52 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $51 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $300 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $248 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $4 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 15¢ $255 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $156 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $164 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $49 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 12¢ $49 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $145 21h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 24¢ $137 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $310 23h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $248 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $198 30h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $200 31h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $39 32h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $208 34h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $227 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $197 47h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $155 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $51 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -63.9% -67.3% 14% 14% -56.7%
≤30d 14 -63.9% -67.3% 14% 14% -56.7%
≤90d 14 -63.9% -67.3% 14% 14% -56.7%
all 14 -63.9% -67.3% 14% 14% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.3% 14% -56.7%
10% -70.5% 14% -60.8%
15% -73.3% 7% -64.6%
20% -75.9% 7% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.99 · official $501.99 (match) · 39 history records