Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x399c…6191 sports 781 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$622 (-2%) realized −$627 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%409W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$264
14 days−$209
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$81
crypto 27% −$735
other 13% −$200
world 3% +$54
politics 1% −$12
economics 1% −$154
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 55% -30.3%
≤30d 88 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 62% -10.5%
≤90d 324 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 55% -14.3%
all 779 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 50% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 50% -12.9%
10% -21.9% 47% -21.2%
15% -29.5% 40% -28.8%
20% -36.4% 30% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses409 / 370
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)779 / 781
History coverage235d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 58¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$22 -71%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$13 +41%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$19 +97%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 +$8 +44%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $30 −$12 -39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$13 +44%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$16 -52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$18 +59%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$23 +112%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$26 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $61 +$27 +45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 −$17 -57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$22 +74%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $30 +$20 +64%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 3h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 2d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $43 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $39 2d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 69¢ $18 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 80¢ $30 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 50¢ $20 2d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $30 2d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $30 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Legacy 33¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $30 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 66¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $30 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $48 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 68¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $31 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $201 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.43 · official $86.93 · 1794 history records