Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x399d…7c5b
crypto · 152 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$3,778 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses91 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage59d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days+$2,208
14 days+$2,177
30 days+$2,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
La Bisbal: Alina Charaeva vs Dalma Galfi Dalma Galfi 69¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $722 +$530 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $413 +$280 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $2,053 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2,568 +$1,483 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3,081 −$2,947 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $4,090 +$1,833 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $517 +$428 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4,109 +$1,253 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2,063 +$1,566 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1,545 +$1,078 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2,056 −$354 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1,235 +$813 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $825 +$584 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $455 +$386 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $206 +$140 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $114 +$99 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $57 +$51 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$46 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $72 +$47 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $228 −$220 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $154 +$92 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $114 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $227 −$113 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$51 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$872
sports 4% −$90
other 2% −$945
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $141 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $580 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $692 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $413 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $951 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1,102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $517 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4,051 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $629 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1,938 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1,541 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $675 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $515 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1,841 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $372 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $796 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1,081 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $944 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $393 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.4% -21.7% 48% 48% -3.0%
≤30d 115 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 51% -3.3%
≤90d 152 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 49% -9.8%
all 152 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 49% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 49% -9.8%
10% -26.1% 37% -18.5%
15% -33.2% 30% -26.3%
20% -39.8% 24% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records