Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x399d…93cf other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$78 (-3%) realized +$27 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$130
14 days−$180
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$275
world 27% +$41
crypto 9% +$34
finance 6% +$23
politics 4% −$32
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.4% -34.3% 44% 33% -24.9%
≤30d 23 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 30% -20.4%
≤90d 45 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 27% -13.0%
all 45 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 27% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 27% -13.0%
10% -33.4% 18% -21.3%
15% -39.9% 11% -28.9%
20% -45.8% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage43d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? Yes 74¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$71 -71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$55 -77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$17 -21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$89 -89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$13 -43%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $103 −$79 -77%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 09 $20 −$3 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$53 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 20 $101 +$14 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $26 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 20 $48 +$112 +235%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto May 19 $52 −$11 -22%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $90 −$7 -8%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 18 $205 +$101 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A May 16 $62 −$20 -33%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th May 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 14 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? May 14 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 25¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $114 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $64 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $96 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $101 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $17 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes $17 13d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $24 13d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes $20 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $17 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 66¢ $106 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.28 · official $65.28 (match) · 94 history records