Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39a1…881a other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$160 (-14%) realized −$159 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$160
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$168
other 42% −$1
world 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -12.1% -20.5% 78% 11% -27.8%
all 15 -6.6% -15.5% 87% 7% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 7% -25.3%
10% -23.6% 7% -32.5%
15% -31.0% 7% -39.0%
20% -37.8% 7% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$161 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage176d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $163 −$160 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $165 −$162 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $173 +$155 +90%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Apr 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 27 $251 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Feb 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $18 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.15 · official $174.15 (match) · 29 history records