Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39a7…d1cb sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$400 (-3%) realized −$398 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 74L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$472
other 40% −$295
culture 3% −$37
weather 3% −$190
world 2% +$159
crypto 1% −$15
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.4% -18.0% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 20 -18.2% -25.9% 5% 5% -17.8%
≤90d 94 -14.1% -22.2% 21% 19% -15.4%
all 94 -14.1% -22.2% 21% 19% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 19% -15.4%
10% -29.7% 18% -23.5%
15% -36.5% 17% -30.9%
20% -42.7% 17% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$32 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$398
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage52d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,155 −$40 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $112 −$3 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 −$5 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $727 −$83 -11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$14 -31%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $903 −$52 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $180 −$11 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $94 −$5 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $255 −$30 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $23 −$18 -80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $43 +$22 +52%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $128 −$126 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $338 −$17 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $684 −$33 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $46 −$4 -8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $120 −$72 -60%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $32 −$1 -3%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 −$2 -16%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $160 −$13 -8%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $104 −$101 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus May 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $382 −$273 -72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $99 −$7 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,482 +$339 +23%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $138 +$119 +86%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream May 17 $41 −$27 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 16 $86 −$16 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 16 $281 −$174 -62%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $203 +$159 +78%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $208 −$34 -16%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $937 −$24 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 16 $156 +$205 +131%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 May 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $38 −$32 -84%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 12 $5 $0 -10%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $119 −$33 -28%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $58 −$12 -20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $37 −$21 -57%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 07 $42 −$33 -79%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $43 −$4 -10%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $59 −$28 -47%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $14 −$2 -13%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 23.5 May 03 $91 +$72 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 02 $102 −$71 -70%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 02 $123 −$16 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 34m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 37m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $215 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $229 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $54 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $155 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $157 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $202 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $143 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.50 · official $17.50 (match) · 530 history records