Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x39a7…bcb7 sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,654 (+4%) realized +$2,645 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%60W / 52L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$858est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$556
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 43% -33.4%
≤90d 101 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 49% -8.2%
all 112 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 54% -6.2%
10% -13.2% 54% -15.2%
15% -21.6% 54% -23.4%
20% -29.3% 51% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$507 vs −$575 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,199
Realized+$2,645
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$858
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage108d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 47¢ 96¢ $595 $1,198 +$603 (+101%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 63¢ 0¢ $595 $0 −$595 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,344 +$702 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,350 −$1,330 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,566 −$1,550 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,566 −$1,550 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $716 −$700 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $786 −$775 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $692 −$680 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $691 +$854 +124%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $562 −$550 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $1,017 +$1,263 +124%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $486 +$314 +65%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $560 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $556 +$317 +57%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $558 +$480 +86%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $488 +$572 +117%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $1,222 −$1,200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $1,091 +$572 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $1,285 −$1,270 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $557 −$550 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 24 $557 +$450 +81%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $487 +$473 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $560 −$550 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,192 +$596 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 23 $1,098 +$1,402 +128%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 22 $487 +$484 +99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $487 −$480 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1,061 +$2,120 +200%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $425 −$420 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $481 −$470 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $465 +$294 +63%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 15 $465 +$254 +55%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 15 $1,080 −$1,060 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 15 $469 −$460 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 15 $413 +$682 +165%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $465 +$277 +60%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 14 $469 −$460 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $468 −$460 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 14 $533 −$525 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 14 $536 −$525 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 13 $535 +$971 +181%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 13 $609 −$600 -99%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 12 $2,121 +$1,061 +50%
Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs May 10 $607 −$600 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win - Game 2 Winner May 10 $526 +$300 +57%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 10 $2,047 +$1,593 +78%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs May 09 $532 +$457 +86%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner May 08 $626 +$832 +133%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage May 07 $708 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 47¢ $604 39m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $602 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $1,344 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $1,350 9d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $1,566 10d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $1,566 10d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 25¢ $205 15d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 25¢ $511 15d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $786 16d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 41¢ $692 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 44¢ $691 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $611 17d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $562 19d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 44¢ $1,017 21d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 60¢ $486 24d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 37¢ $560 24d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $1 25d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $558 28d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $556 28d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 45¢ $488 28d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 39¢ $1,222 28d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 65¢ $1,091 29d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $1,285 29d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner BUY Aurora 55¢ $557 29d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 55¢ $557 30d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $487 31d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 37¢ $560 31d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 43¢ $1,098 32d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $1,192 32d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $487 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,198.91 · official $1,023.23 · 206 history records