Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
39 0x39ad…f00d sports 297 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$637 (+14%) realized +$618 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%148W / 112L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$448
14 days+$333
30 days+$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$507
crypto 8% +$50
world 4% +$4
other 3% +$51
tech 1% +$7
economics 1% −$6
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +62.5% +47.0% 79% 68% +41.1%
≤30d 151 +26.5% +14.5% 64% 58% +15.1%
≤90d 254 +17.0% +5.9% 58% 53% +6.6%
all 260 +15.3% +4.3% 57% 52% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 52% +5.4%
10% -5.7% 51% -4.6%
15% -14.8% 49% -13.9%
20% -23.2% 47% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$843
Realized+$618
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses148 / 112
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions37
Markets (closed)260 / 297
History coverage122d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 98¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 54¢ 68¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ 96¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+9%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+203%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 66¢ 74¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+11%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 77¢ 74¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 75¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 45¢ 47¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$3 +22%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$20 +190%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Savannah Broadus Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
ITF Ontinyent: Maileen Nuudi vs Raquel Gonzalez Vilar Jun 13 $10 +$7 +67%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 13 $10 +$8 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 +$13 +124%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $23 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $10 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $20 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 56¢ $20 1h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 1h
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Laia Petretic 57¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $10 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 45¢ $10 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $20 1h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $30 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $20 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $10 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 77¢ $20 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 75¢ $20 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $10 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $20 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $60 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.92 · official $842.92 (match) · 509 history records