Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
39 0x39ae…cc72 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 554d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-17%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$21
other 37% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.4% -31.6% 20% 20% +22.2%
≤30d 5 -24.4% -31.6% 20% 20% +22.2%
≤90d 5 -24.4% -31.6% 20% 20% +22.2%
all 10 -9.8% -18.4% 30% 30% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 30% +4.9%
10% -26.2% 30% -5.1%
15% -33.3% 30% -14.3%
20% -39.9% 30% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$21 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage554d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$98 +240%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$19 -62%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $33 +$76 +233%
Gane vs. Volkov Dec 08 $25 +$10 +42%
Rakhmonov vs. Garry Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Pantoja vs. Asakura Dec 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Mitchell vs. Gracie Dec 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.89 · official $73.89 · 21 history records