Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39af…cb0d crypto 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-20%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -20.1% -27.7% 9% 9% -23.1%
≤30d 140 -20.1% -27.7% 9% 9% -23.1%
≤90d 140 -20.1% -27.7% 9% 9% -23.1%
all 140 -20.1% -27.7% 9% 9% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 9% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 9% -30.5%
15% -40.9% 9% -37.2%
20% -46.7% 9% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records