Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x39af…81ba crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1
other 18% $0
sports 12% $0
tech 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 46 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.03 per $1 lost it wins $6.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage501d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 05 $32 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy? Mar 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $13 +$1 +5%
Will another team win La Liga? Feb 19 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $38 63d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 123d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 123d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 151d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 183d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $41 183d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $43 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 243d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $13 243d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $33 244d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 363d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 365d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 396d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $12 396d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.47 · official $42.47 (match) · 100 history records