Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x39af…1174 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$244 (+39%) realized +$246 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$140
14 days+$254
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$145
sports 42% +$29
world 8% +$57
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +111.4% +91.3% 75% 75% +86.3%
≤30d 9 +74.6% +58.0% 67% 67% +59.4%
≤90d 37 +25.0% +13.1% 57% 57% +29.7%
all 37 +25.0% +13.1% 57% 57% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 57% +29.7%
10% +2.3% 57% +17.3%
15% -7.6% 54% +5.9%
20% -16.7% 46% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$73 +237%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$54 +132%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $79 +$34 +43%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N May 01 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $8 +$3 +42%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $1 $0 +43%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$5 +109%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $5 +$4 +79%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $15 +$21 +140%
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $5 +$4 +90%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 22 $5 −$2 -34%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $5 +$9 +172%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 22 $5 +$5 +95%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 20 $5 +$4 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $108 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $61 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $51 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $94 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $41 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $79 10d
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 42d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 24¢ $10 46d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 49d
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 SELL Yes 100¢ $9 49d
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N SELL No 26¢ $4 50d
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 46¢ $20 51d
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 51d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY No 54¢ $20 51d
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 55d
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 56d
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 BUY Yes 58¢ $5 59d
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N BUY No 19¢ $3 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.72 · official $67.72 (match) · 77 history records