Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
39 0x39b5…cf5f crypto 927 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,797 (-15%) realized −$6,824 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate66%651W / 331L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,230
7 days−$1,230
14 days−$1,230
30 days−$1,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,634
other 24% −$299
sports 3% −$127
world 1% −$150
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 2% -81.8%
≤30d 58 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 2% -81.8%
≤90d 58 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 2% -81.8%
all 982 -14.2% -22.4% 66% 18% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 18% -16.4%
10% -29.8% 11% -24.4%
15% -36.6% 9% -31.7%
20% -42.8% 7% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$6,824
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses651 / 331
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)982 / 927
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 982 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $51 $78 +$27 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$10 -38%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 18 $40 −$69 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -734%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -1158%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$33 -343%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 18 $714 −$714 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$10 -84%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $44 −$34 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$3 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$20 -120%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$11 -33%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-12-14? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 16¢ $51 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $51 23h
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 113d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 113d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 113d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 113d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $0 113d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 113d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.03 · official $78.03 (match) · 3500 history records